
At c. US$700 billion, Tesla’s lofty market capitalisation is buoyed by promises of fully autonomous vehicles. Elon Musk’s original masterplan (now removed from the Tesla website) was to “develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning” and to “enable your car to make money for you when you aren’t using it“.
So far, these have been a pipe dream. The 10th October “We, Robot” event is meant to assuage critics. Judging by the share price drop of c. 8% the following day, market participants are not convinced by Tesla’s autonomous future.
New products
Tesla has had a paucity of new and exciting products since the Cybertruck. At the event, we finally see the long-anticipated Robotaxi (aka Cybercab) in action. Robotaxi is built to be fully autonomous – it’s pedal-less and does not have a steering wheel.
Details are scant. We know that it’ll cost less than US$30K and that production will start before 2027. Elon Musk paints a future in which people can own a fleet of Robotaxis and put them to work on Tesla’s ride-hailing platform. In this fantastical future, idle GPUs in Robotaxis could also be rented out for AI inferences. The sales pitch, many times rehashed over the years, is that Tesla vehicles will be cash-generating assets.
For an autonomous ride-hailing service to work, Musk hints at building infrastructure fit for a fully autonomous vehicle; for example, there will be inductive charging so that the vehicle does not have to be manually plugged in. We also see a sneak peek of a robot cleaner that clears rubbish and freshens up the vehicle for the next ride.
In a “one last thing” moment reminiscent of Steve Jobs, we see the Robovan navigating itself to the stage. The vehicle looks like a futuristic airport shuttle. Musk pronounces that “the future should look like the future” to fanatical cheers. The lack of details is palpable.
Updates on FSD
Updates on “full self-driving” (FSD) is scarce as well. Musk says that Model 3 and Model Y in Texas and California will have unsupervised FSD (i.e. full autonomy without the need for human supervision and intervention) in 2025. At this point, no one really believes his time-to-market estimates.
Musk rehashes Tesla’s real-world data advantage – Tesla vehicles on the road (the “fleet”) provide Tesla with valuable AI model training data. However, even with that advantage, FSD is taking much longer than expected.
Updates on Tesla Bot
First teased at AI Day 2021, the Tesla Bot has made progress albeit from a very low bar – instead of a human dressed in a robot suit, humanoid robots walk amongst the attendees. They dance, serve drinks, and play “rock paper scissors”. The caveat is that these robots are not fully autonomous but are tele-operated by humans.
Even so, Tesla Bot’s agility is impressive and somewhat unnerving. Musk is touting it as the “biggest product ever of any kind” as it will bring about “an age of abundance” (cheap robotic labour for the masses, yay – unless, of course, we have a Terminator scenario).
Conclusion
The event is disappointingly thin on details but it’s refreshing to see Tesla putting on a glitzy marketing event.
Ultimately, Tesla’s investors are making a simple wager – a bet that Musk and co can deliver on Tesla’s autonomous future. It’s likely to take longer than promised – Musk is known to set ambitious deadlines as a management strategy to create a sense of urgency within the company.
If one’s investment time horizon is sufficiently long, Tesla missing self-imposed ambitious milestones is almost a moot point. With Tesla, the ride to financial Valhalla will be bumpy but the destination is within reach.

The bottom line: Elon Musk paints a fantastical future in which Tesla supplies robots that the masses demand. Tesla’s lofty market valuation prices in Musk’s potential to deliver on his promises. Progress may be slow and publicly-announced delivery dates will definitely be missed. For long-term investors, these are not real concerns – autonomy will most likely happen within their investment time horizon.
Disclaimer and disclosure: This is my personal view as a long-time Tesla fan. It is NOT investment advice/recommendation. I write on this blog in my personal capacity; my opinions are NOT endorsed by my employer or the actuarial profession. I am financially and emotionally invested in Tesla’s success.